Målrusning i Super League, tidiga spelanalyser och vad som påverkar statistiken nu

69 goals from 18 matches after the first three rounds – the new Super League season is already delivering plenty of goals, with every third goal scored by a substitute. This can be exciting for early betting predictions, but at the same time, it provides a good reason not to judge or extrapolate from the first results too quickly.

After the first 18 Super League matches, the average goal statistic was 3.83 per game. For comparison, the 2025/26 season ended with a total of 750 goals across 228 matches, averaging around 3.29 goals per game – the current figure is significantly higher.

The fourth matchday continued with a high-scoring affair: Young Boys beat newly promoted Vaduz 4-2, Basel won 2-1 away at FC Zürich, while Luzern defeated Lausanne 1-0. However, the overall picture is somewhat skewed, as three matches could not take place as planned due to the European Cup play-offs.

An offensive start to the season is tempting for betting analysts.

When almost four goals are scored per game in three rounds, markets like "Over 2.5 goals" suddenly look more attractive. The same applies to bets on both teams scoring or live markets after an open opening phase. On betting sites like Sportaza, football markets are listed alongside offers for other sports and ongoing matches. However, the odds don't explain why the Super League is currently so high-scoring. For that, you have to look deeper into the course of the games.

Those who look for goals early have to live with small sample sizes:

Of the first 69 goals of the season, 23 (approximately one-third, or 33.3%) were scored by substitutes. In the previous season, only 18.5% of all goals were scored by substitutes, and in 2024/25 it was 18.3%.

That's a huge difference, but a new normal can't be derived from a base of 18 games. Two conspicuous rounds are enough to catapult the average significantly upwards.

In round 1, 3 goals came from the bench, after which the statistics exploded.

In both the second and third matchdays, substitute players scored ten goals each. This means the previous league record for a single round was equaled twice.

Behind the 23 goals were 20 different players:

Enoch Owusu of FC St. Gallen and Lugano's Yanis Cimignani each scored a brace after coming on as substitutes. Sion's Winsley Boteli has also already netted two goals as a substitute – this is more interesting for analyzing a match than pure goal statistics, because anyone who only looks at the starting eleven is currently missing an unusually large part of the attacking output.

Individual player profiles are becoming more important:

Xherdan Shaqiri scored after coming on as a substitute in FC Basel's 4-2 win against Thun. It was only his second goal as a substitute in a total of 48 Super League goals.

The first few weeks don't tell a simple story of particularly offensive starting formations, because much happens later.

5 changes make the bank more valuable

Since 2020, five player substitutions have been permitted: This allows coaches to react more effectively to the course of the game without having used up their substitutions after just two or three adjustments.

In the event of an unexpected deficit, more attacking forces can be deployed immediately. And when in the lead, fresh pace can be brought on to maintain momentum for counter-attacks. Added to this are tired defenders, more space, and players off the bench who only have to go full throttle for 20 to 30 minutes.

Therefore, a few points are more interesting than the pure season average before placing an early goal bet:

1. How many goals does a team score after the 60th minute?
2. Which attacking players are actually on the bench?
3. How strong is the opponent in the final phase?
4. Is a club coming directly from a European Cup match?

The last point is particularly relevant at the moment: Basel, Thun, Lugano, St. Gallen, Sion, and other clubs involved in international competitions have to manage their workload between league and European cup matches. As a result, several league games were rescheduled as early as the fourth matchday.

3.8 goals is still not a new norm

After the three matches already played in the fourth round, the league stands at 79 goals from 21 games. This averages out to approximately 3.76 goals per game.

That's still significantly more than the roughly 3.29 goals per game in the entire previous season. The difference is large enough to warrant attention. However, it's still too early to draw any far-reaching conclusions at the end of August.

A few low-scoring rounds can quickly bring down the average.

The same applies to goals scored by substitutes. A share of one-third would be historic over a full season; currently, it is based on just a few matchdays.

The preseason provides a good counterpoint: Back then, a total of 139 goals were scored by substitutes. That sounds like a lot, but out of 750 goals, it only represented 18.5%. The current figure is almost twice as high.

A wild start for the Super League 26/27, but no season pattern yet.

Many goals, remarkably successful substitutions, and several teams whose matches become open early on. This data is valuable for betting analysis.

However, it must remain clear what they represent: always just a snapshot.

Anyone who tries to predict the entire season from this alone is making far more of 18 or 21 games than they actually provide.

The coming weeks will be more interesting: Will the goal average remain high? Will substitutes continue to score unusually often? Will the figures return to normal once the teams have found their rhythm?

69 goals and 23 goals scored by substitutes after 18 matches, along with comparative figures from previous seasons. The results of the matches already played on Matchday 4 and the postponements have also been confirmed by the Swiss Football League. These numbers provide plenty of material for discussion, but the true picture will only emerge once more matches have been played.