Predict.fun bekräftar förlust av plånbok på 400 000 dollar och skyller på en tredjepartswebbplats för dokumentation

Early Tuesday it was a "likely exploit" and a $300,000 guess. By afternoon it was official. Predict.fun, the BNB Chain prediction market, says roughly 400,000 USDT left a small number of user wallets without permission, and that it will pay every affected user back.

From One Angry Post To A Confirmed Loss

It started with a user called dethective, who posted that about $5,000 had vanished from their wallet within the hour. "I am not the only victim," they wrote on X. Their screenshot showed an outflow of roughly 4,845 USDT from an address labeled Kernel, next to earlier transactions involving a Predict.fun contract. Whether those earlier transactions have anything to do with the theft hasn't been established.

On-chain investigator Naeven picked it up. His thread identified 19 victims who lost a combined 105 ETH, around $260,000. The money hopped through intermediary wallets, bridged to Ethereum, then went into Tornado Cash. His advice to anyone still holding funds on the platform was to get them out.

Then Onchain Lens flagged about $300,000 leaving multiple contracts, passing through intermediary wallets to the Relay bridge, and landing in Tornado Cash. The alert called Predict.fun "likely exploited" and said more addresses were being tracked.

What Predict.fun Says

The team confirmed the incident on X. A small number of users saw unauthorized transfers adding up to about 400,000 USDT. The preliminary theory: the API documentation site, hosted by a third-party provider, may have been compromised for a short period. That site is now offline, with no return date.

Predict.fun says it will fully reimburse everyone who lost funds as a direct result, and promised a post-mortem once the investigation ends.

Notice what's missing. There's no word on how a documentation site ends up emptying someone's wallet.

Three Numbers For One Hack

Onchain Lens said $300,000. Naeven counted 105 ETH, about $260,000. Predict.fun says 400,000 USDT. Crypto Times also cited a separate observer putting losses above $400,000. These don't have to contradict each other, because early on-chain counts only cover wallets someone has already mapped. But nobody outside the company can say yet which number is right, and the company figure is the highest of the bunch.

The Docs-Site Question

A documentation site shouldn't be able to touch anyone's funds. So either it was a stepping stone to something that could, or the explanation is incomplete. Predict.fun hasn't said which. Investigators haven't pinned down whether malicious approvals, bad signatures or a flawed contract were involved, according to crypto.news.

June's Polymarket incident has a similar shape. A compromised third-party vendor, a malicious script slipped into the frontend, users drained, full refunds promised. Specter put that loss at $2.94 million across at least 11 wallets. Nothing public says Predict.fun's case works the same way. The post-mortem needs to answer exactly that.

Who's Exposed

Predict.fun launched in December 2025. By early April it reported more than $1.8 billion in cumulative volume and over 4 million orders, when YZi Labs announced a follow-on investment alongside Susquehanna Crypto. Binance Wallet added in-app access on April 9, with trading gas sponsored for eligible users, so the user base isn't limited to people who found the site on their own. Nothing confirms that Binance Wallet users were hit.

DeFiLlama had the platform's TVL at about $13.71 million on October 23, per FinanceFeeds. Predict.fun describes the losses as coming from user wallets, so that figure is only a rough sense of scale.

Tornado Cash Again

Mixers keep getting the proceeds. Earlier this month, wallets tied to the Drift exploit sent about $109 million in ETH through Tornado Cash over two days, and Salus traced $12.4 million from the Triple-A treasury breach into the same mixer. Once funds are in, recovery gets hard. That makes Predict.fun's refund promise worth more than any hope of a clawback.

What's Still Open

The root cause. The final victim count. When the documentation site comes back. Predict.fun hasn't given a date for the post-mortem.